Significance Tests (hypothesis testing)

Example

Four siblings random lottery who cleans:

• Assume truly random

• P(Bill not picked on a night) = 3/4

• P(Bill not picked 3 nights in a row) = 3/4 * 3/4 * 3/4 = 27/64 = 0.42 = 42%

• 12 nights in a row => (3/4)^12 = 0.032 or 3.2%

Idea behind hypothesis testing